Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 7 6 2007 10.5194/acpd-7-15453-2007 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/15453/2007/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/15453/2007/acpd-7-15453-2007.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/7/15453/2007/acpd-7-15453-2007.pdf 15453 15494 2007-11-02 Long-term trends of the concentration of the minor constituents in the mesosphere – a model study M. Grygalashvyly gryga@iap-kborn.de G. R. Sonnemann P. Hartogh Leibniz-Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the University Rostock in Kühlungsborn, Schloss-Str. 6, 18225 Ostseebad Kühlungsborn, Germany Max-Planck-Institute for Solar System Research, Max-Planck-Str. 2, 37191 Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany We investigate the influence of the rising concentrations of methane, dinitrogen oxide and carbon dioxide since the pre-industrial era upon the chemistry of the mesosphere. We use for calculations our global 3D-model COMMA-IAP designed for the exploration of the MLT-region and particularly the extended mesopause region. In order to get approximated data of the solar Lyman-α flux back to the pre-industrial time, we derived a quadratic fit using the sunspot number available since 1749 as the only solar proxy for the Lyman-α flux before 1947. The Lyman-α flux values are employed to determine the water vapor dissociation rate. The water vapor trend analysis utilizes estimated methane trends since the pre-industrial era. An unsolved problem for the model calculations consists of the water vapor mixing ratio at the hygropause during the time range of trend calculation. We assume that the hygropause was dryer at the pre-industrial time than currently. As a consequence of the methane oxidation, the middle atmosphere became more humid according to the rising methane concentration, but depending on height and with a small time delay of few years. 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