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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ACPD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ACPD</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1680-7375</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus GmbH</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/acpd-6-11745-2006</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Toon</surname>
<given-names>O. B.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Turco</surname>
<given-names>R. P.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Robock</surname>
<given-names>A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bardeen</surname>
<given-names>C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Oman</surname>
<given-names>L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Stenchikov</surname>
<given-names>G. L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2006</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>6</volume>
<issue>6</issue>
<fpage>11745</fpage>
<lpage>11816</lpage>
<permissions>
<license xlink:type="simple">
<license-p>This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
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<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/6/11745/2006/acpd-6-11745-2006.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/6/11745/2006/acpd-6-11745-2006.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>We assess the potential damage and smoke production associated with the
detonation of small nuclear weapons in modern megacities. While the number
of nuclear warheads in the world has fallen by about a factor of three since
its peak in 1986, the number of nuclear weapons states is increasing and the
potential exists for numerous regional nuclear arms races. Eight countries
are known to have nuclear weapons, 2 are constructing them, and an
additional 32 nations already have the fissile material needed to build
substantial arsenals of low-yield (Hiroshima-sized) explosives. Population
and economic activity worldwide are congregated to an increasing extent in
megacities, which might be targeted in a nuclear conflict. Our analysis
shows that, per kiloton of yield, low yield weapons can produce 100 times as
many fatalities and 100 times as much smoke from fires as high-yield
weapons, if they are targeted at city centers. A single &quot;small&apos;&apos; nuclear
detonation in an urban center could lead to more fatalities, in some cases
by orders of magnitude, than have occurred in the major historical conflicts
of many countries. We analyze the likely outcome of a regional nuclear
exchange involving 100 15-kt explosions (less than 0.1% of the explosive
yield of the current global nuclear arsenal). We find that such an exchange
could produce direct fatalities comparable to all of those worldwide in
World War II, or to those once estimated for a &quot;counterforce&apos;&apos; nuclear war
between the superpowers. Megacities exposed to atmospheric fallout of
long-lived radionuclides would likely be abandoned indefinitely, with severe
national and international implications. Our analysis shows that smoke from
urban firestorms in a regional war would rise into the upper troposphere due
to pyro-convection. Robock et al.&amp;nbsp;(2006) show that the smoke would
subsequently rise deep into the stratosphere due to atmospheric heating, and
then might induce significant climatic anomalies on global scales.We also anticipate substantial perturbations of global
ozone. While there are many uncertainties in the predictions we
make here, the principal unknowns are the type and scale of conflict that
might occur. The scope and severity of the hazards identified pose a
significant threat to the global community. They deserve careful analysis by
governments worldwide advised by a broad section of the world scientific
community, as well as widespread public debate.</p>
</abstract>
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