Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 4, 3227-3248, 2004
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/4/3227/2004/
doi:10.5194/acpd-4-3227-2004
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP.
Extrapolating future Arctic ozone losses
B. M. Knudsen1, S. B. Andersen1, B. Christiansen1, N. Larsen1, M. Rex2, N. R. P. Harris3, and B. Naujokat4
1Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark
2Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Germany
3European Ozone Research Coordinating Unit, United Kingdom
4Free University of Berlin, Germany

Abstract. Future increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases and water vapour are likely to cool the stratosphere further and to increase the amount of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Future Arctic PSC areas have been extrapolated using the highly significant trends in the temperature record from 1958–2001. Using a tight correlation between PSC area and the total vortex ozone depletion and taking the decreasing amounts of ozone depleting substances into account we make empirical estimates of future ozone. The result is that Arctic ozone losses increase until 2010–2020 and only decrease slightly up to 2030. This approach is an alternative method of prediction to that based on the complex coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs).

Citation: Knudsen, B. M., Andersen, S. B., Christiansen, B., Larsen, N., Rex, M., Harris, N. R. P., and Naujokat, B.: Extrapolating future Arctic ozone losses, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 4, 3227-3248, doi:10.5194/acpd-4-3227-2004, 2004.
 
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