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<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ACPD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ACPD</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1680-7375</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus GmbH</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/acpd-2-1371-2002</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>An exploration of ozone changes and their radiative forcing prior to the chlorofluorocarbon era</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Shindell</surname>
<given-names>D. T.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Faluvegi</surname>
<given-names>G.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>also at: Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>18</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2002</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2</volume>
<issue>5</issue>
<fpage>1371</fpage>
<lpage>1401</lpage>
<permissions>
<license xlink:type="simple">
<license-p>This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/2/1371/2002/acpd-2-1371-2002.html">This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/2/1371/2002/acpd-2-1371-2002.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/2/1371/2002/acpd-2-1371-2002.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/2/1371/2002/acpd-2-1371-2002.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Using historical observations and model simulations, we investigate ozone trends prior to the
      mid-1970s onset of halogen-induced ozone depletion. Though measurements are quite
      limited, an analysis based on multiple, independent data sets (direct and indirect) provides
      better constraints than any individual set of observations. We find that three data sets support
      an apparent long-term stratospheric ozone trend of -7.2 ± 2.3 DU during
      1957-1975, which modeling attributes primarily to water vapor increases. The results suggest that stratospheric
      ozone depletion may have been roughly 50% more than is generally supposed. Similarly,
      three data sets support tropospheric ozone increases over polluted Northern Hemisphere
      continental regions of 8.2 ± 2.1 DU during this period, which are mutually consistent with the
      stratospheric trends. As with paleoclimate data, which is also based on indirect proxies and/or
      limited spatial coverage, these results must be interpreted with caution. However, they
      provide the most thorough estimates presently available of ozone changes prior to the
      coincident onset of satellite data and halogen dominated ozone changes. If these apparent
      trends were real, the radiative forcing by stratospheric ozone since the 1950s would then have
      been -0.15 ± 0.05 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;, and -0.2 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; since the preindustrial. For tropospheric ozone, it
      would have been 0.38 ±&amp;nbsp; 0.10 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; since the 1950s, larger than current estimates since 1850
      which are derived from models that are even less well constrained. Going back to the
      preindustrial, the radiative forcing would have been +0.7 W/m&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;, roughly double what is
      generally assumed, although even more uncertain than the late twentieth century trends. These
      calculations demonstrate the importance of gaining a better understanding of historical ozone
      changes.</p>
</abstract>
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