Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 13, 7431-7461, 2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP.
A study of the impact of land-use change in Borneo on atmospheric composition using a global model
N. J. Warwick1,2, A. T. Archibald1,2, K. Ashworth3,*, J. Dorsey1,4, P. M. Edwards5, D. E. Heard1,6, B. Langford7, J. Lee1,8, P. K. Misztal7,9,**, J. L. K. Whalley1,6, and J. A. Pyle1,2
1National Centre for Atmospheric Science, NCAS, Cambridge, UK
2Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Lensfield Road, Cambridge, \newline CB2 1EW, UK
3Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, UK
4School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 3PL, UK
5ESRL, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305–3328, USA
6School of Chemistry, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
7Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Penicuik, EH26 OQB, UK
8Department of Chemistry, University of York, Heslington, UK
9Department of Chemistry, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
*now at: KIT, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research, Kreuzeckbahn Str. 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
**now at: Deparment of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkerley, CA 94720, USA

Abstract. In this study, we use a high resolution version of the Cambridge p-TOMCAT model, along with data collected during the 2008 NERC-funded Oxidant and Particle Photochemical Processes (OP3) project, to examine the potential impact of the expansion of oil palm in Borneo on air quality and atmospheric composition. Several model emission scenarios are run for the OP3 measurement period, incorporating emissions from both global datasets and local flux measurements. Isoprene fluxes observed at a forest site during OP3 were considerably less than fluxes calculated using the MEGAN model. Incorporating the observed isoprene fluxes into p-TOMCAT substantially improved the comparison between modelled and observed isoprene surface mixing ratios and OH concentrations relative to using the MEGAN emissions. If both observed isoprene fluxes and HOx recycling chemistry were included, the ability of the model to capture diurnal variations in isoprene and OH was further improved. However, a similar improvement was also achieved using a~standard chemical mechanism without HOx recycling, by fixing boundary layer isoprene concentrations over Borneo to follow the OP3 observations. Further model simulations, considering an extreme scenario with all of Borneo converted to oil palm plantation, were run to determine the maximum atmospheric impact of land use change in Borneo. In these simulations, the level of nitrogen oxides was found to be critical. If only isoprene emissions from oil palm are considered, then large scale conversion to oil palm produced a decrease in monthly mean surface ozone of up to ~20%. However, if related changes in NOx emissions from fertilisation, industrial processing and transport are also included then ozone increases of up to ~70% were calculated. Although the largest changes occurred locally, the model also calculated significant regional changes of O3, OH and other species downwind of Borneo and in the free troposphere.

Citation: Warwick, N. J., Archibald, A. T., Ashworth, K., Dorsey, J., Edwards, P. M., Heard, D. E., Langford, B., Lee, J., Misztal, P. K., Whalley, J. L. K., and Pyle, J. A.: A study of the impact of land-use change in Borneo on atmospheric composition using a global model, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 13, 7431-7461, doi:10.5194/acpd-13-7431-2013, 2013.
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