Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 13, 5923-5959, 2013
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/13/5923/2013/
doi:10.5194/acpd-13-5923-2013
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under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP.
Assessment of past, present and future health-cost externalities of air pollution in Europe and the contribution from international ship traffic using the EVA model system
J. Brandt1, J. D. Silver1, J. H. Christensen1, M. S. Andersen1, J. H. Bønløkke2, T. Sigsgaard2, C. Geels1, A. Gross1, A. B. Hansen1, K. M. Hansen1, G. B. Hedegaard1,5, E. Kaas3, and L. M. Frohn4
1Aarhus University, Department of Environmental Science, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
2Aarhus University, Section of Environment, Occupation and Health, Institute of Public Health, Bartholins Allé 2, Building 1260, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
3University of Copenhagen, Planet and Geophysics, Niels Bohr Institute, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 København Ø, Denmark
4Aarhus University, AU Knowledge, Tuborgvej 164, 2400 København NV, Denmark
5now at: Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund University, Sölvegatan 37, 223 62 Lund, Sweden

Abstract. An integrated model system, EVA (Economic Valuation of Air pollution), based on the impact-pathway chain has been developed, to assess the health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The model system can be used to support policy-making with respect to emission control. In this study, we apply the EVA system to Europe, and perform a more detailed assessment of past, present, and future health-cost externalities of the total air pollution levels in Europe (including both natural and anthropogenic sources), represented by the years 2000, 2007, 2011, and 2020. We also assess the contribution to the health-related external costs from international ship traffic with special attention to the international ship traffic in the Baltic and North Seas, since special regulatory actions on sulphur emissions, called SECA (sulphur emission control area), have been introduced in these areas,. We conclude that despite efficient regulatory actions in Europe in recent decades, air pollution still constitutes a serious problem to human health, hence the related external costs are considerable. The total health-related external costs for the whole of Europe is estimated at 803 bn Euro yr−1 for the year 2000, decreasing to 537 bn Euro yr−1 in the year 2020. We estimate the total number of premature deaths in Europe in the year 2000 due to air pollution to be around 680 000 yr−1, decreasing to approximately 450 000 in the year 2020. The contribution from international ship traffic in the Northern Hemisphere was estimated to 7% of the total health-related external costs in Europe in the year 2000, increasing to 12% in the year 2020. In contrast, the contribution from international ship traffic in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea decreases 36% due to the regulatory efforts of reducing sulphur emissions from ship traffic in SECA. Introducing this regulatory instrument for all international ship traffic in the Northern Hemisphere, or at least in areas close to Europe, would have a significant positive impact on human health in Europe.

Citation: Brandt, J., Silver, J. D., Christensen, J. H., Andersen, M. S., Bønløkke, J. H., Sigsgaard, T., Geels, C., Gross, A., Hansen, A. B., Hansen, K. M., Hedegaard, G. B., Kaas, E., and Frohn, L. M.: Assessment of past, present and future health-cost externalities of air pollution in Europe and the contribution from international ship traffic using the EVA model system, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 13, 5923-5959, doi:10.5194/acpd-13-5923-2013, 2013.
 
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