Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 13, 28017-28066, 2013
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/13/28017/2013/
doi:10.5194/acpd-13-28017-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review Status
This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP.
Uncertainty analysis of projections of ozone-depleting substances: mixing ratios, EESC, ODPs, and GWPs
G. J. M. Velders1 and J. S. Daniel2
1National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, the Netherlands
2National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO 80305, USA

Abstract. The rates at which ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are removed from the atmosphere, that is, their lifetimes, are key factors for determining the rate of ozone layer recovery in the coming decades. We present here a comprehensive uncertainty analysis of future mixing ratios of ODSs, levels of equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), ozone depletion potentials, and global warming potentials, using, among other information, the 2013 WCRP/SPARC assessment of lifetimes of ODSs and their uncertainties. The year EESC returns to pre-1980 levels, a metric commonly used to indicate a level of recovery from ODS-induced ozone depletion, is 2048 for mid-latitudes based on the lifetimes from the SPARC assessment, which is about 2 yr later than based on the lifetimes from the WMO assessment of 2011. However, the uncertainty in this return to 1980 levels is much larger than the 2 yr change. The year EESC returns to pre-1980 levels ranges from 2039 to 2064 (95% confidence interval) for mid-latitudes and 2061 to 2105 for the Antarctic spring. The primary contribution to these ranges comes from the uncertainty in the lifetimes. The earlier years of the return estimates are comparable to a hypothetical scenario in which emissions of ODSs cease in 2014. The later end of the range corresponds to a scenario containing an additional emission of about 7 Mt CFC-11-eq in 2015, which is the same as about 2 times the cumulative anthropogenic emissions of all ODSs from 2014 to 2050, or about 12 times the cumulative HCFC emissions from 2014 to 2050.

Citation: Velders, G. J. M. and Daniel, J. S.: Uncertainty analysis of projections of ozone-depleting substances: mixing ratios, EESC, ODPs, and GWPs, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 13, 28017-28066, doi:10.5194/acpd-13-28017-2013, 2013.
 
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