Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 13, 16113-16150, 2013
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/13/16113/2013/
doi:10.5194/acpd-13-16113-2013
© Author(s) 2013. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP.
The evolution of shipping emissions and the costs of recent and forthcoming emission regulations in the northern European emission control area
L. Johansson1, J.-P. Jalkanen1, J. Kalli2, and J. Kukkonen1
1Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
2University of Turku, Centre for Maritime Studies, P.O. Box 181, 28101 Pori, Finland

Abstract. An extensive inventory of marine exhaust emissions is presented in the northern European emission control area (ECA) in 2009 and 2011. The emissions of SOx, NOx, CO2, CO and PM2.5 were evaluated using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model (STEAM). We have combined the information on individual vessel characteristics and position reports generated by the Automatic Identification System (AIS). The emission limitations from 2009 to 2011 have had a significant impact on reducing the emissions of both SOx and PM2.5. The predicted emissions of SOx originated from IMO-registered marine traffic have been reduced by 33%, from 322 ktons to 217 ktons, in the ECA from 2009 to 2011. The corresponding predicted reduction of PM2.5 emissions was 20%, from 74 ktons to 59 ktons. The highest CO2 and PM2.5 emissions in 2011 were located in the vicinity of the coast of the Netherlands, in the English Channel, near the South-Eastern UK and along the busiest shipping lines in the Danish Straits and the Baltic Sea. The changes of emissions and the financial costs caused by various regulative actions since 2005 were also evaluated, based on the increased direct fuel costs. We also simulated the effects and direct costs associated with the forthcoming switch to low-sulfur distillate fuels in 2015. According to the projections for the future, there will be a reduction of 85% in SOx emissions and a~reduction of 50% in PM2.5 emissions in 2015, compared with the corresponding shipping emissions in 2011 in the ECA. The corresponding relative increase in fuel costs for all shipping varied between 10% and 63%, depending on the development of the prices of fuels and the use of the sulfur scrubber equipment.

Citation: Johansson, L., Jalkanen, J.-P., Kalli, J., and Kukkonen, J.: The evolution of shipping emissions and the costs of recent and forthcoming emission regulations in the northern European emission control area, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 13, 16113-16150, doi:10.5194/acpd-13-16113-2013, 2013.
 
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