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ACPD

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions

ACPD

1680-7375

Copernicus GmbH

Göttingen, Germany

10.5194/acpd-12-7705-2012

European summer surface ozone 1990–2100

Langner

¹ Engardt

¹ Andersson

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176, Norrköping, Sweden

16 03 2012

12 3 7705 7726

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The impact of climate change and changes in ozone precursor emissions on summer surface ozone in Europe were studied using a regional CTM over the period 1990 to 2100. Two different climate simulations under the SRES A1B scenario together with ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario were used as model input. In southern Europe regional climate change leads to increasing surface ozone concentrations during April–September, but projected emission reductions in Europe have a stronger effect, resulting in net reductions of surface ozone concentrations. In northern Europe regional climate change decreases surface O<sub>3</sub> and reduced emissions acts to further strengthen this trend also when including increasing hemispheric background concentrations, although on the British Isles the combined effect is an increase. Due to substantial decadal variability in the simulations it is important to study averages over sufficiently long time periods in order to be able to extract robust signals of climate change impacts on surface O<sub>3</sub> concentrations.

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