Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 7705-7726, 2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP.
European summer surface ozone 1990–2100
J. Langner, M. Engardt, and C. Andersson
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 60176, Norrköping, Sweden

Abstract. The impact of climate change and changes in ozone precursor emissions on summer surface ozone in Europe were studied using a regional CTM over the period 1990 to 2100. Two different climate simulations under the SRES A1B scenario together with ozone precursor emission changes from the RCP4.5 scenario were used as model input. In southern Europe regional climate change leads to increasing surface ozone concentrations during April–September, but projected emission reductions in Europe have a stronger effect, resulting in net reductions of surface ozone concentrations. In northern Europe regional climate change decreases surface O3 and reduced emissions acts to further strengthen this trend also when including increasing hemispheric background concentrations, although on the British Isles the combined effect is an increase. Due to substantial decadal variability in the simulations it is important to study averages over sufficiently long time periods in order to be able to extract robust signals of climate change impacts on surface O3 concentrations.

Citation: Langner, J., Engardt, M., and Andersson, C.: European summer surface ozone 1990–2100, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 7705-7726, doi:10.5194/acpd-12-7705-2012, 2012.
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