Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 32613-32629, 2012
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/12/32613/2012/
doi:10.5194/acpd-12-32613-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review Status
This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP.
Avoiding HFC growth is critical for keeping global warming below 2 °C during the 21st century
Y. Xu1, D. Zaelke2, G. J. M. Velders3, and V. Ramanathan1
1Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, 9500 Gilman Dr., La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
2Program on Governance for Sustainable Development, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, UC Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA
3National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), P.O. Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands

Abstract. There is growing international interest in mitigating climate change during the early part of this century by reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), in addition to reducing emissions of CO2. The SLCPs include methane (CH4), black carbon aerosols (BC), tropospheric ozone (O3) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Recent studies have estimated that by mitigating emissions of CH4, BC, and O3 using available technologies, about 0.5 to 0.6 °C warming can be avoided by mid-21st century. Here we show that avoiding production and use of high-GWP (global warming potential) HFCs by using technologically feasible low-GWP substitutes to meet the increasing global demand can avoid as much as another 0.5 °C warming by end of the century, therefore significantly reducing the rate of warming and lowering the probability of exceeding the 2 °C warming threshold during this century.

Citation: Xu, Y., Zaelke, D., Velders, G. J. M., and Ramanathan, V.: Avoiding HFC growth is critical for keeping global warming below 2 °C during the 21st century, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 32613-32629, doi:10.5194/acpd-12-32613-2012, 2012.
 
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