Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 23291-23331, 2012
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/12/23291/2012/
doi:10.5194/acpd-12-23291-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP.
Assimilation of ground versus lidar observations for PM10 forecasting
Y. Wang1,2, K. N. Sartelet1, M. Bocquet1,3, and P. Chazette2
1CEREA, joint laboratory Ecole des Ponts ParisTech – EDF R&D, Université Paris-Est, 77455 Champs sur Marne, France
2LSCE, joint laboratory CEA – CNRS, UMR8212, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
3INRIA, Paris-Rocquencourt Research Center, Le Chesnay, France

Abstract. This article investigates the potential impact of future ground-based lidar networks on analysis and short-term forecasts of particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 10 μg m−3 (PM10). To do so, an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is built for PM10 data assimilation (DA) using optimal interpolation (OI) over Europe for one month in 2001. First, using a lidar network with 12 stations, we estimate the efficiency of assimilating the lidar network measurements in improving PM10 concentration analysis and forecast. It is compared to the efficiency of assimilating concentration measurements from the AirBase ground network, which includes about 500 stations in Western Europe. It is found that assimilating the lidar observations decreases by about 54% the root mean square error (RMSE) of PM10 concentrations after 12 h of assimilation and during the first forecast day, against 59% for the assimilation of AirBase measurements. However, the assimilation of lidar observations leads to similar scores as AirBase's during the second forecast day. The RMSE of the second forecast day is improved on average over the summer month by 57% by the lidar DA, against 56% by the AirBase DA. Moreover, the spatial and temporal influence of the assimilation of lidar observations is larger and longer. The results show a potentially powerful impact of the future lidar networks. Secondly, since a lidar is a costly instrument, a sensitivity study on the number and location of required lidars is performed to help defining an optimal lidar network for PM10 forecast. With 12 lidar stations, an efficient network in improving PM10 forecast over Europe is obtained by regularly spacing the lidars. DA with a lidar network of 26 or 76 stations is compared to DA with the previously-used lidar network. The assimilation of 76 lidar stations' measurements leads to a better score than AirBase's during the forecast days.

Citation: Wang, Y., Sartelet, K. N., Bocquet, M., and Chazette, P.: Assimilation of ground versus lidar observations for PM10 forecasting, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 23291-23331, doi:10.5194/acpd-12-23291-2012, 2012.
 
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