Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 13813-13825, 2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP.
Evaluation of the absolute regional temperature potential
D. T. Shindell
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA

Abstract. The Absolute Regional Temperature Potential (ARTP) is one of the few climate metrics that provides estimates of impacts at a sub-global scale. The ARTP gives the time-dependent temperature response in four latitude bands (90–28° S, 28° S–28° N, 28–60° N and 60–90° N) as a function of the regional forcing imposed in those bands. It is based on a large set of simulations performed with a single atmosphere-ocean climate model. Here I evaluate ARTP estimates of regional temperature responses due to historic aerosol forcing in three independent climate models and show that the ARTP metric provides results in good accord with the actual responses in those models. Nearly all ARTP estimates fall within ±20% of the actual responses, and in particular for the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes this range appears to be roughly consistent with the 95% confidence interval. Land areas within these two bands respond 41 ± 6% and 19 ± 28% more than the latitude band as a whole. The ARTP, presented here in a slightly revised form, thus appears to provide a relatively robust estimate for the responses of large-scale latitude bands and land areas within those bands to inhomogeneous radiative forcing.

Citation: Shindell, D. T.: Evaluation of the absolute regional temperature potential, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 12, 13813-13825, doi:10.5194/acpd-12-13813-2012, 2012.
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