ACPD Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ACPD 1680-7375 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acpd-11-28945-2011 Quasi-stationary planetary waves in late winter Antarctic stratosphere temperature as a possible indicator of spring total ozone Kravchenko V. O. 1 Evtushevsky O. M. 1 Grytsai A. V. 1 Klekociuk A. R. 2 Milinevsky G. P. 1 Grytsai Z. I. 1 Space Physics Laboratory, Kyiv National Taras Shevchenko University, Kyiv, Ukraine Ice, Ocean, Atmosphere and Climate Program, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia 26 10 2011 11 10 28945 28967 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/28945/2011/acpd-11-28945-2011.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/28945/2011/acpd-11-28945-2011.pdf

Stratospheric preconditions for the annual Antarctic ozone hole are analysed using the amplitude of quasi-stationary planetary waves in temperature as a predictor of total ozone column behaviour. It is found that the quasi-stationary wave amplitude in August is highly correlated with September–November total ozone over Antarctica with correlation coefficient as high as 0.83 indicating that quasi-stationary wave effects in late winter have a persisting influence on the evolution of the ozone hole during the following three months. Correlation maxima are found in both the lower and middle stratosphere. They are likely manifestations of wave activity influence on chemical ozone depletion and large-scale ozone transport, respectively. Both correlation maxima indicate that spring total ozone tends to increase in the case of amplified activity of quasi-stationary waves in late winter.

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