Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 24127-24164, 2011
www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/24127/2011/
doi:10.5194/acpd-11-24127-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP.
Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 2: Climate response
E. M. Leibensperger1,*, L. J. Mickley1, D. J. Jacob1, W.-T. Chen2, J. H. Seinfeld3, A. Nenes4, P. J. Adams5, D. G. Streets6, N. Kumar7, and D. Rind8
1School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
2Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
3Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
4School of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences and School of Chemical & Biological Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
5Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering and Department Engineering & Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
6Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA
7Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA, USA
8NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
*now at: Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA

Abstract. We investigate the climate response to US anthropogenic aerosol sources over the 1950 to 2050 period by using the NASA GISS general circulation model (GCM) and comparing to observed US temperature trends. Time-dependent aerosol distributions are generated from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model applied to historical emission inventories and future projections. Radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols peaked in 1970–1990 and has strongly declined since due to air quality regulations. We find that the regional radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols elicits a strong regional climate response, cooling the central and eastern US by 0.5–1.0 °C on average during 1970–1990, with the strongest effects on maximum daytime temperatures in summer and autumn. Aerosol cooling reflects comparable contributions from direct and indirect (cloud-mediated) radiative effects. Absorbing aerosol (mainly black carbon) has negligible warming effect. Aerosol cooling reduces surface evaporation and thus decreases precipitation along the US east coast, but also increases the southerly flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico resulting in increased cloud cover and precipitation in the central US. Observations over the eastern US show a lack of warming in 1960–1980 followed by very rapid warming since, which we reproduce in the GCM and attribute to trends in US anthropogenic aerosol sources. Present US aerosol concentrations are sufficiently low that future air quality improvements are projected to cause little further warming in the US (0.1 °C over 2010–2050). We find that most of the potential warming from aerosol source controls in the US has already been realized over the 1980–2010 period.

Citation: Leibensperger, E. M., Mickley, L. J., Jacob, D. J., Chen, W.-T., Seinfeld, J. H., Nenes, A., Adams, P. J., Streets, D. G., Kumar, N., and Rind, D.: Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 2: Climate response, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 24127-24164, doi:10.5194/acpd-11-24127-2011, 2011.
 
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