References

ACPD

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions

ACPD

1680-7375

Copernicus GmbH

Göttingen, Germany

10.5194/acpd-11-23081-2011

Projecting future HFC-23 emissions

Miller

B. R.

¹ ² Kuijpers

L. J. M.

Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Global Monitoring Division, ESRL, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Eindhoven Centre for Sustainability, Technical University Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The Netherlands

16 08 2011

11 8 23081 23102

This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/23081/2011/acpd-11-23081-2011.html

The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/23081/2011/acpd-11-23081-2011.pdf

A Reference Case (RC) scenario for emissions of HFC-23 from co-production during HCFC-22 manufacture over the next 25 yr is presented. Offered as a template rather than a prediction, this model projects current production practices and existing abatement frameworks to yield insights into how the atmosphere might evolve with and without additional efforts to constrain HFC-23 emissions. Assuming that no additional abatement measures are implemented, emissions for year 2035 in this Reference Case would rise to 24 ktonnes yr−1, (cf., 8.6 ktonnes yr−1 in 2009), the atmospheric abundance of HFC-23 would rise to 50 ppt, which is a 121 % increase over the 2009 observed abundance, and HFC-23 would be expected to contribute a radiative forcing of 9 mW m−2 (cf., 4 mW m−2 in 2009). Under such a scenario, the HFC-23 emission growth rate would be a continuation of the historical trend of ~0.2 ktonnes yr−2 until 2030, after which the growth is projected to quadruple as the Montreal Protocol phase-out of HCFC production for dispersive use concludes and HFC-23 thermal decomposition in the projects of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) comes to a scheduled end while growth in the production of HCFC-22 for feedstock use continues to climb with projected GDP growth. Two opposite variations regarding the future renewal of CDM projects are examined for their impact on projected emissions and abundance, relative to the Reference Case scenario.

References 1

Douglas, A. R., Forster, P. M. D., Hauglustaine, D. A., Isaksen, I. S. A., Kuijpers, L. J. M., McCulloch, A., and Wallington, T. J.: Halocarbon scenarios, ozone depletion potentials, and global warming potentials. In: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project report no. 50. (World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland) 8.1–8.39, 2007.

EIA (2010) \it International Energy Outlook 2010, Reference Case Projections, Appendix A (U.S. Energy Information Administration) available online at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/ieorefcase.pdf, 2010.

Forster, P., Ramaswamy, V., Artaxo, P., Berntsen, T., Betts, R., Fahey, D. W., Haywood, J., Lean, J., Lowe, D. C., Myhre, G., Nganga, J., Prinn, R., Raga, G., Schulz, M., and Van Dorland, R.: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2007.

Harnisch, J., Klaus, S., Wartmann, S. and Rhiemeier, J.-M.: Documentation Report – Development of F-Gas module for timer model, (Ecofys for the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency MNP), 2009.

Lindley, A.: Response to DuPont letter to CDM Methodology Panel concerning AM0001, available online at: http://cdm.unfccc.int/public_inputs/inputam0001/Comment_AM0001_IneosFluor_LettertoMP_05July2004.pdf, 2004.

McCulloch, A. and Lindley, A. A.: Global emissions of HFC-23 estimated to year 2015, Atmos Environ., 41, 1560–1566, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.02.021doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.02.021, 2007.

Miller, B. R., Rigby, M., Kuijpers, L. J. M., Krummel, P. B., Steele, L. P., Leist, M., Fraser, P. J., McCulloch, A., Harth, C., Salameh, P., M�hle, J., Weiss, R. F., Prinn, R. G., Wang, R. H. J., O'Doherty, S., Greally, B. R., and Simmonds, P. G.: HFC-23 (CHF3) emission trend response to HCFC-22 (CHClF2) production and recent HFC-23 emission abatement measures, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7875-7890, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7875-2010doi:10.5194/acp-10-7875-2010, 2010.

Naik, V., Jain, A. K., Patten, K. O., and Wuebbles, D. J.: Consistent sets of atmospheric lifetimes and radiative forcings on climate for CFC replacements: HCFCs and HFCs, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 6903–6914, 2000.

Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R., Editors: Special Report on Emission Scenarios, Working Group III (IPCC), available online at: http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_sr, 2000.

Ottinger Schaefer, D., Godwin, D., and Harnisch, J.: Estimating future emissions and potential reductions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6. Energy J., Special Issue, 3,63–88, 2006.

Rotherham, D.: Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Verification Audit for Dupont's Louisville Works Freon\textregistered22 Plant, Final Report (ICF Consulting, Toronto, Canada), available online at: http://cdm.unfccc.int/public_inputs/inputam0001/Letter_Dupont_Annex2_03June04.pdf, 2004.

Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K. B., Tignor, M., and Miller, H. L. (eds.): Climate Change 2007: The Physical Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007.

UNEP: Report of the 9th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer UNEP/OzL. Pro. 19/7 (United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya), 2007.

UNEP: Production and Feedstock Production data for HCFC-22, 1989–2008, as reported under Article 7 of the Montreal Protocol (UNEP Nairobi), March 2010.

UNFCCC: data in the Common Reporting Format, available online at: http://unfccc.int/di/DetailedByParty.do, 2010.

van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K., Smith, S., Meinshausen, M., Mastrandrea, M., and Moss, R.,: RCP Extension White Paper, available online at: http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/docs/DraftRCPExtension_WhitePaper_26Jul09.pdf, 2009.

van Vuuren, D. P., Stehfest, E., den Elzen, M. G. J., van Vliet, J., and Isaac, M.: Exploring IMAGE model scenarios that keep greenhouse gas radiative forcing below 3 W/m2 in 2100, Energy Econom., 32, 1105–1120, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2010.03.001doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2010.03.001, 2010.

Velders, G. J. M., Fahey, D. W., Daniel, J. S., McFarland, M., and Andersen, S. O.: The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106, 10949–10954, 2009.