ACPD Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ACPD 1680-7375 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acpd-11-2183-2011 Impacts of future climate change and effects of biogenic emissions on surface ozone and particulate matter concentrations in US Lam Y. F. 1 Fu J. S. 1 Wu S. 2 Mickley L. J. 2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee at Knoxville, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA 21 01 2011 11 1 2183 2231 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/2183/2011/acpd-11-2183-2011.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/2183/2011/acpd-11-2183-2011.pdf

Simulations of present and future average regional ozone and PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations over the United States were performed to investigate the potential impacts of global climate change and emissions on regional air quality using CMAQ. Various emissions and climate conditions with different biogenic emissions and domain resolutions were implemented to study the sensitivity of future air quality trends from the impacts of changing biogenic emissions. A comparison of GEOS-Chem and CMAQ was performed to investigate the effect of downscaling on the prediction of future air quality trends. For ozone, the impacts of global climate change are relatively smaller when compared to the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction, except for the Northeast area, where increasing biogenic emissions due to climate change have stronger positive effects (increases) to the regional ozone air quality. The combination effect from both climate change and emission reductions leads to approximately a 10% or 5 ppbv decrease of the maximum daily average eight-hour ozone (MDA8) over the Eastern United States. For PM<sub>2.5</sub>, the impacts of global climate change have shown insignificant effect, where as the impacts of anticipated future emissions reduction account for the majority of overall PM<sub>2.5</sub> reductions. The annual average 24-h PM<sub>2.5</sub> of the future-year condition was found to be about 40% lower than the one from the present-year condition, of which 60% of its overall reductions are contributed to by the decrease of SO<sub>4</sub> and NO<sub>3</sub> particulate matters. Changing the biogenic emissions model increases the MDA8 ozone by about 5–10% or 3–5 ppbv in the Northeast area. Conversely, it reduces the annual average PM<sub>2.5</sub> by 5% or 1.0 μg/m<sup>3</sup> in the Southeast region.

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