Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 10 4 2010 10.5194/acpd-10-9895-2010 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/9895/2010/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/9895/2010/acpd-10-9895-2010.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/9895/2010/acpd-10-9895-2010.pdf 9895 9916 2010-04-16 Will climate change increase ozone depletion from low-energy-electron precipitation? A. J. G. Baumgaertner work@andreas-baumgaertner.net P. Jöckel M. Dameris P. J. Crutzen Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, 55020 Mainz, Germany Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Weßling, Germany We investigate the effects of a strengthened Brewer-Dobson circulation on the transport of nitric oxide (NO) produced by energetic particle precipitation. During periods of high geomagnetic activity, low-energy-electron precipitation is responsible for winter time ozone loss in the polar middle atmosphere between 1 and 6 hPa. However, as climate change is expected to increase the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, the enhancements of NO_x concentrations are expected to be transported to lower altitudes in extra-tropical regions, becoming even more significant in the ozone budget. We use simulations with the chemistry climate model system ECHAM5/MESSy to compare present day effects of low-energy-electron precipitation with expected effects in a climate change scenario for the year 2100. In years of strong geomagnetic activity, similar to that observed in 2003, an additional polar ozone loss of up to 0.5 μmol/mol at 5 hPa is found. 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