Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 10 3 2010 10.5194/acpd-10-6871-2010 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/6871/2010/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/6871/2010/acpd-10-6871-2010.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/6871/2010/acpd-10-6871-2010.pdf 6871 6894 2010-03-11 Effects of climate-induced changes in isoprene emissions after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo P. J. Telford J. Lathière N. L. Abraham P. Braesicke C. E. Johnson O. Morgenstern F. M. O'Connor R. C. Pike O. Wild P. J. Young D. Beerling C. N. Hewitt J. A. Pyle Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1EW, UK Department of Plant and Animal Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK now at: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment, Gif sur Yvette, France. now at: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand now at: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado 80305, USA In the 1990s the rates of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations, most notably of methane, were observed to change, for reasons that have yet to be fully determined. This period included the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo and an El Niño warm event, both of which affect biogeochemical processes, by changes in temperature, precipitation and radiation. We examine the impact of these changes in climate on global isoprene emissions and the effect these climate dependent emissions have on the hydroxy radical, OH, the dominant sink for methane. We model a reduction of isoprene emissions in the early 1990s, with a maximum decrease of 40 Tg(C)/yr in late 1992 and early 1993, a change of 9%. This reduction is caused by the cooler, drier conditions following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Isoprene emissions are reduced both directly, by changes in temperature and a soil moisture dependent suppression factor, and indirectly through reductions in the total biomass. The reduction in isoprene emissions causes increases of tropospheric OH which lead to an increased sink for methane of up to 5 Tg/year, comparable to estimated source changes over the time period studied. Archibald, A., Jenkin, M., and Shallcross, D.: An isoprene mechanism intercomparison, Atmos. Env., doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.09.016, in press, 2009. Barkley, M., Palmer, P., Kuhn, U., Kesselmeier, J., Chance, K., Kurosu, T., Martin, R., Helmig, D., and Guenther, A.: Net ecosystem flux of isoprene over tropical South America inferred from Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) observation of HCHO columns, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20304, \doi10.1029/2008JD009863, 2008. Beerling, D., Woodward, F., Lomas, M., and Jenkins, A.: Testing the responses of a dynamic global vegetation model to environmental change: a comparison of observations and predictions, Global Ecol. Biogeogr. Lett., 6, 439–450, 1997. Beerling, D J. and Woodward, F I.: Vegetation and the terrestial carbon cycle. Modelling the first 400 million years, Cambridge University Press, 2001. Bekki, S., Law, K., and Pyle, J.: Effect of ozone depletion on atmospheric CH₄ and CO concentrations, Nature, 371, 595–597, 1994. Bousquet, P., Hauglustaine, D A., Peylin, P., Carouge, C., and Ciais, P.: Two decades of OH variability as inferred by an inversion of atmospheric transport and chemistry of methyl chloroform, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 2635–2656, 2005. Bousquet, P., Ciais, P., Miller, J B., Dlugokencky, E J., Hauglustaine, D A., Prigent, C., der Werf, G. R V., Peylin, P., Brunke, E.-G., Carouge, C., Langenfelds, R L., Lathière, J., Papa, F., Ramonet, M., Schmidt, M., Steele, L P., Tyler, S C., and White, J.: Contribution of anthropogenic and natural sources to atmospheric methane variability, Nature, 443, 439–443, 2006. Claeys, M., Graham, B., Vas, G., Wang, W., Vermeylen, R., Pashynka, V., Cafmeyer, J., Guyon, P., Andreae, M., Artaxo, P., and Maenhaut, W.: Formation of Secondary Organic Aerosols Through Photooxidation of Isoprene, Science, 303, 5661, \doi10.1126/science.1092805, 2004. Dalsøren, S. and Isaksen, I.: CTM study of changes in tropospheric hydroxyl distribution 1990-2001 and its impact on methane, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23811, doi:10.1029/2006GL027295, 2006. Denman, K., Brasseuer, G., Chidthaisong, A., Ciais, P., Cox, P., Dickinson, R., Hauglustaine, D., Heinze, C., Holland, E., Jacob, D., Lohmann, U., Ramachandran, S., de~Silva, P., Wofsy, S., and Zhang, X. L.: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, chap. Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry, Cambridge University Press, 499–587, 2007. Dlugokencky, E., Houweling, S., Bruhwiler, L., Masarie, K., Lang, P., Miller, J., and Tans, P.: Atmospheric methane levels off: Temporary pause or a new steady-state?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1992, doi:10.1029/2003GL018126, 2003. Eyers, C., Addleton, D., Atkinson, K., Broomhead, M., Christou, R., Elliff, T., Falk, R., Gee, I., Lee, D., Marizy, C., Michot, S., Middel, J., Newton, P., Norman, P., Plohr, M., Raper, D., and Stanciou, N.: AERO2K global aviation emissions inventories for 2002 and 2025, Tech. Rep. QinetiQ/04/01113, Qinetiq, 2004. Gedney, N., Cox, P., and Huntingford, C.: Climate feedback from wetland methane emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L20503, doi:10.1029/2004GL020919, 2004. Giannakopoulos, C., Chipperfield, M., Law, K., and Pyle, J.: Validation and intercomparison of wet and dry deposition schemes using Pb-210 in a global three-dimensional off-line chemical transport model, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 23761–23784, 1999. Guenther, A., Karl, T., Harley, P., Wiedinmyer, C., Palmer, P., , and Geron, C.: Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3181–3210, 2006. Johnson, C., Stevenson, D., Collins, W., and Derwent, R.: Interannual variability in methane growth rate simulated with a coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Chemistry model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1903, \doi10.1029/2002GL015269, 2002. Krol, M. and Lelieveld, J.: Can the variability in tropospheric OH be deduced from measurements of 1,1,1-trichloroethane (methyl chloroform)?, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4125, doi:10.1029/2002JD002423, 2003. Lathière, J., Hauglustaine, D., Friend, A., De Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Viovy, N., and Folberth, G.: Impact of climate variability and land use changes on global biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 2129-2146, 2006. Lathière, J., Hewitt, N., and Beerling, D.: Sensitivity of isoprene emissions from the terrestrial biosphere to 20th century changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, climate and land use, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 24, GB1004, doi:10.1029/2009GB003548, 2010. Law, K. and Pyle, J.: Modeling trace gas budgets in the troposphere.1. ozone and odd nitrogen, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 18377–18400, 1993a. Law, K. and Pyle, J.: Modeling trace gas budgets in the troposphere 2. CH₄ and CO, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 18401–18412, 1993b. Law, K., Plantevin, P., Shallcross, D., Rogers, H., Pyle, J., Grouhel, C., Thouret, V., and Marenco, A.: Evaluation of modeled O₃ using Measurement of Ozone by Airbus In-Service Aircraft (MOZAIC) data, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 25721–25737, 1998. Lelieveld, J., Crutzen, P., and Dentener, F.: Changing concentration, lifetime and climate forcing of atmospheric methane, Tellus B, 50, 128–150, 1998. Lelieveld, J., Butler, T., Crowley, J., Dillon, T., Fischer, H., L., G., Harder, H., Lawrence, M., Martinez, M., Taraborrelli, D., and Williams, J.: Atmospheric oxidation capacity sustained by a tropical forest., Nature, 452, 737–740, 2008. McCormick, M., Thomason, L., and Trepte, C.: Atmospheric Effects of the Mount Pinatubo Eruption, Nature, 373, 399–405, 1995. Milton, S. and Dean, W.: Disturbance, drought and dynamics of desert dune grassland, South Africa, Plant Ecology, 150, 37–51, 2000. Morgenstern, O., Braesicke, P., O' Connor, F., Bushell, A., Johnson, C., Osprey, S., and Pyle, J.: Evaluation of the new UKCA climate-composition model. Part 1: The Stratosphere, Geosci. Model Dev., 2, 43–57, 2009. Müller, J.-F., Stavrakou, T., Wallens, S., Smedt, I D., Roozendael, M V., Potosnak, M J., Rinne, J., Munger, B., Goldstein, A., and Guenther, A B.: Global isoprene emissions estimated using MEGAN, ECMWF analyses and a detailed canopy environment model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1329–1341, 2008. O'Connor, F., Johnson, C., Morgenstern, O., and Collins, W J.: Interactions between tropospheric chemistry and climate model temperature and humidity biases, Geophys. Res. Lett, 36, L16801, \doidoi:10.1029/2009GL039152, 2009a. O'Connor, F., Johnson, C., Morgenstern, O., Sanderson, M., Young, P., Collins, W., and J Pyle, J A.: Evaluation of the new UKCA climate-composition model. Part 2: The Troposphere, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., in preparation, 2009b. Paulot, F., Crounse, J., Kjaergaard, H., Kürten, A., St Clair, J., Seinfeld, J., and Wennberg, P.: Unexpected Epoxide Formation in the Gas-Phase Photooxidation of Isoprene, Science, 325, 730–733, 2009. Pike, R., Lee, J., Young, P., Moller, S., Misztal, P., Langford, B., Yang, X., Carver, G., and Pyle, J.: Can a GCM chemical mechanism reproduce NO, NO₂ and O₃ data above a tropical rainforest, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., submitted, 2009. Pöschl, U., von Kuhlmann, R., Poisson, N., and Crutzen, P.: Development and intercomparison of condensed isoprene oxidation mechanisms for global atmospheric modelling, J. Atmos. Chem., 37, 29–52, 2000. Price, C. and Rind, D.: Modelling global lightning distributions in a general circulation model, Mon. Weath. Rev., 122, 1930–1939, 1994. Qian, H., Joseph, R., and Zeng, N.: Response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Tellus B, 60, 537–550, 2008. Rayner, A., Rayner, N., Parker, D., Horton, E., Folland, C., Alexander, L., Rowell, D., Kent, E., and Kaplan, A.: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D4), 407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670, 2003. Sanderson, M., Jones, C., Collins, W., Johnson, C., and Derwent, R.: Effect of climate change on isoprene emissions and surface ozone levels, Geophys. Res. Lett, 30, 1936, \doidoi:10.1029/2003GL017642., 2003. Sharkey, T., Wiberley, A., and Donohue, A.: Isoprene Emission from Plants: Why and How, Ann. Botany, 10, 1–14, 2007. Stevenson, D., Dentener, F., Schultz, M., Ellingsen, K., van Noije, T., Wild, O., Zeng, G., Amann, M., Atherton, C., Bell, N., Bergmann, D., Bey, I., Butler, T., Cofala, J., Collins, W., Derwent, R., Doherty, R., Drevet, J., Eskes, H., Fiore, A., Gauss, M., Hauglustaine, D., Horowitz, L., Isaksen, I., Krol, M., Lamarque, J.-F., Lawrence, M., Montanaro, V., ller, J.-F M., Pitari, G., Prather, M., Pyle, J., Rast, S., Rodriguez, J., Sanderson, M., Savage, N., Shindell, D., Strahan, S., Sudo, K., and Szopa, S.: Multimodel ensemble simulations of present-day and near-future tropospheric ozone, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D08301, \doi10.1029/2005JD006338, 2006. Telford, P., Braesicke, P., Morgenstern, O., and Pyle, J.: Technical Note: Description and Assessment of a Nudged Version of the New Dynamics Unified Model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1701–1712, 2008. Telford, P., Braesicke, P., Morgenstern, O., and Pyle, J.: Reassessment of Causes of Ozone Column Variability following the Eruption of Mount Pinatubo using a nudged CCM, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 4251–4260, 2009. Tian, H., Melillo, J., Kicklighter, D., McGuire, A., Helfrich III, J., Moore III, B., and Vörösmarty, C.: Effect of interannual climate variability on carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems, Nature, 396, 664–667, 1998. Trenberth, K. and Dai, A.: Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L15702, \doi10.1029/2007GL030524, 2007. Uppala, S., Kallberg, P., Simmons, A., Andrae, U., Da~Costa~Bechtold, V., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M., Beljaars, A., van~de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Holm, E., Hoskins, B., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P., Jenne, R., McNally, A., Mahfouf, J.-F., Morcrette, J.-J., .Rayner, N., Saunders, R., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40 re-analysis, Q.J.Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961–3012, 2005. Wang, J., J.Logan, McElroy, M., Duncan, B., Megretskaia, I., and Yantosca, R.: A 3-D model analysis of the slowdown and interannual variability in the methane growth rate from 1988–1997, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, 2004. Warwick, N., Bekki, S., Law, K., Nisbet, E., and Pyle, J.: The impact of meteorology on the interannual growth rate of atmospheric methane, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2002. Wolter, K. and Timlin, M.: Monitoring ENSO in COADS with a seasonally adjusted principal component index, in: Proc. of the 17th Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Norman, OK, NOAA/N MC/CAC, NSSL, Oklahoma Clim. Survey, CIMMS and the School of Meteor., Univ. of Oklahoma, 52–57, 1993. Young, P., Arneth, A., Schurgers, G., Zeng, G., and Pyle, J A.: The CO₂ inhibition of terrestrial isoprene emission significantly affects future ozone projections, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 2793–2803, 2009. Zeng, G. and Pyle, J A.: Changes in tropospheric ozone between 2000 and 2100 modeled in a chemistry-climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1392, doi:doi:10.1029/2002GL016708, 2003.