Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net 1680-7367 1680-7375 10 2 2010 10.5194/acpd-10-3229-2010 http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/3229/2010/ http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/3229/2010/acpd-10-3229-2010.html http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/3229/2010/acpd-10-3229-2010.pdf 3229 3263 2010-02-05 Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts N. Bei bnf@mce2.org W. Lei M. Zavala L. T. Molina Molina Center for Energy and the Environment, La Jolla, CA, USA Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA The purpose of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of ozone concentration ([O₃]) predictions in Mexico City to meteorological initial uncertainties and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes using state-of-the-art meteorological and photochemical prediction models through ensemble forecasts. The simulated periods (3, 9, 15, and 29 March 2006), represent four typical meteorological episodes ("South-Venting", "O₃-North", "O₃-South" and "Convection-North", respectively) in the Mexico City basin during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO campaign. Our results demonstrate that uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions have significant impacts on O₃ predictions, including the peak time [O₃], as well as the horizontal and vertical [O₃] distributions, and temporal variations. 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