ACPD Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ACPD 1680-7375 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acpd-10-29809-2010 Nonlinear response of ozone to precursor emission changes in China: a modeling study using response surface methodology Xing J. 1 Wang S. X. 1 Jang C. 2 Zhu Y. 3 Hao J. M. 1 Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China The US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA School of Environmental Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China 07 12 2010 10 12 29809 29851 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/29809/2010/acpd-10-29809-2010.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/29809/2010/acpd-10-29809-2010.pdf

Statistical response surface method (RSM) is successfully applied in Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) analysis on ozone sensitivity studies. Prediction performance has been validated through cross validation, out of sample validation and isopleths validation. Sample methods and key parameters including the maximum numbers for variables involving in statistic interpolation as well as training sample number have been tested and selected through computational experiments. Overall impacts from individual sources including local/regional NO<sub>x</sub> and VOC emission sources and NO<sub>x</sub> emissions from power plants for three megacities as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have been evaluated through RSM analysis under a July 2005 modeling study. NO<sub>x</sub> control appears to be beneficial for ozone reduction in the downwind areas where usually have higher ozone levels, and it's likely to be more effective than anthropogenic VOC control during heavy photochemical pollution period. Regional NO<sub>x</sub> sources are strong contributors to surface ozone mixing. Local NO<sub>x</sub> emission control without regional involvement may bring the risk of increasing urban ozone levels due to the VOC-limited conditions, but it gives considerable control benefit for ozone in upper layers (up to 1 km, where the ozone chemistry is changed to NO<sub>x</sub>-limited condition) and helps to improve regional air quality in the downwind areas. Effectiveness of NO<sub>x</sub> emission control is growing along with stricter control efforts, therefore an integrated regional and multi-pollutant control policy is necessary to mitigate ozone problem in China.

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