Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 29809-29851, 2010
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP.
Nonlinear response of ozone to precursor emission changes in China: a modeling study using response surface methodology
J. Xing1, S. X. Wang1, C. Jang2, Y. Zhu3, and J. M. Hao1
1Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
2The US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA
3School of Environmental Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China

Abstract. Statistical response surface method (RSM) is successfully applied in Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) analysis on ozone sensitivity studies. Prediction performance has been validated through cross validation, out of sample validation and isopleths validation. Sample methods and key parameters including the maximum numbers for variables involving in statistic interpolation as well as training sample number have been tested and selected through computational experiments. Overall impacts from individual sources including local/regional NOx and VOC emission sources and NOx emissions from power plants for three megacities as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have been evaluated through RSM analysis under a July 2005 modeling study. NOx control appears to be beneficial for ozone reduction in the downwind areas where usually have higher ozone levels, and it's likely to be more effective than anthropogenic VOC control during heavy photochemical pollution period. Regional NOx sources are strong contributors to surface ozone mixing. Local NOx emission control without regional involvement may bring the risk of increasing urban ozone levels due to the VOC-limited conditions, but it gives considerable control benefit for ozone in upper layers (up to 1 km, where the ozone chemistry is changed to NOx-limited condition) and helps to improve regional air quality in the downwind areas. Effectiveness of NOx emission control is growing along with stricter control efforts, therefore an integrated regional and multi-pollutant control policy is necessary to mitigate ozone problem in China.

Citation: Xing, J., Wang, S. X., Jang, C., Zhu, Y., and Hao, J. M.: Nonlinear response of ozone to precursor emission changes in China: a modeling study using response surface methodology, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 29809-29851, doi:10.5194/acpd-10-29809-2010, 2010.
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