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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">ACPD</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">ACPD</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1680-7375</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus GmbH</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/acpd-10-20921-2010</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Detecting the influence of fossil fuel and bio-fuel black carbon aerosols on near surface temperature changes</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jones</surname>
<given-names>G. S.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Christidis</surname>
<given-names>N.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Stott</surname>
<given-names>P. A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>02</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2010</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>10</volume>
<issue>9</issue>
<fpage>20921</fpage>
<lpage>20974</lpage>
<permissions>
<license xlink:type="simple">
<license-p>This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.</license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
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<abstract>
<p>Past research has shown that the dominant influence on recent global climate changes
is from anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases with implications for future increases
in global temperatures. One mitigation proposal is to reduce black carbon aerosol emissions. How much
warming can be offset by the aerosol&apos;s control is unclear, especially as its influence on past climate
has not been previously unambiguously detected. In this study observations of near-surface warming over
the last century are compared with simulations using a climate model, HadGEM1. In the simulations black carbon,
from fossil fuel and bio-fuel sources (fBC), produces a positive radiative forcing of about + 0.25 Wm&lt;sup&gt;−2&lt;/sup&gt;
over the 20th century, compared with a little under + 2.5 Wm&lt;sup&gt;−2&lt;/sup&gt; for well mixed greenhouse gases.
A simulated warming of global mean near-surface temperatures over the twentieth century
from fBC of 0.14 &amp;plusmn; 0.1 K compares with 1.06 &amp;plusmn; 0.07 K from greenhouse gases,
-0.58 &amp;plusmn; 0.10 K from anthropogenic aerosols, ozone and land use changes and 0.09 &amp;plusmn; 0.09 K from
natural influences. Using a detection and attribution methodology, the observed warming since 1900
has detectable influences from anthropogenic and natural factors. Fossil fuel and bio-fuel black
carbon is found to have a detectable contribution to the warming over the last 50 years of the 20th century,
although the results are sensitive to a number of analysis choices, and fBC is not detected for the later
fifty year period ending in 2006. The attributed warming of fBC was found to be consistent with the warming from the unscaled simulation. This
study suggests that there is a possible significant influence from fBC on global temperatures,
but its influence is small compared to that from greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="54"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
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