Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 17341-17367, 2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ACP.
Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature
N. P. Gillett1, H. Akiyoshi2, S. Bekki3, V. Eyring4, R. Garcia5, C. A. McLinden6, A. Yu. Karpechko7, D. A. Plummer1, E. Rozanov8,9, J. Scinocca1, and K. Shibata10
1Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
2National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
3Service d'Aéronomie, Institut Pierre-Simone Laplace, Paris, France
4Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
5National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
6Environment Canada, Toronto, Canada
7Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
8Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland
9Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
10Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan

Abstract. Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable and consistent in models and observations. However, the total ozone response to greenhouse gases in the models and observations appears to be inconsistent, which may be due to the models' inability to properly simulate tropospheric ozone changes. In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV/SAGE ozone changes are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and natural responses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depleting substances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observed lower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated and observed responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are found to be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural and combined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent with observations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances could not be separately detected in our analysis.

Citation: Gillett, N. P., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Eyring, V., Garcia, R., McLinden, C. A., Karpechko, A. Yu., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J., and Shibata, K.: Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 17341-17367, doi:10.5194/acpd-10-17341-2010, 2010.
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