ACPD Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ACPD 1680-7375 Copernicus GmbH Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/acpd-10-12795-2010 Extreme events in total ozone over Arosa – Part 2: Fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry and effects on mean values and long-term changes Rieder H. E. 1 Staehelin J. 1 Maeder J. A. 1 Peter T. 1 Ribatet M. 2 Davison A. C. 2 Stübi R. 3 Weihs P. 4 Holawe F. 5 Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Institute of Mathematics, EPF Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland Federal Institute of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), Payerne, Switzerland Institute for Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria Institute for Geography and Regional Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria 18 05 2010 10 5 12795 12826 This is an open-access article ditributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. This article is available from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/12795/2010/acpd-10-12795-2010.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/10/12795/2010/acpd-10-12795-2010.pdf

In this study the frequency of days with extreme low (termed ELOs) and extreme high (termed EHOs) total ozone values and their influence on mean values and trends are analyzed for the world's longest total ozone record (Arosa, Switzerland). The results show (a) an increase in ELOs and (b) a decrease in EHOs during the last decades and (c) that the overall trend during the 1970s and 1980s in total ozone is strongly dominated by changes in these extreme events. After removing the extremes, the time series shows a strongly reduced trend (reduction by a factor of 2.5 for trend in annual mean). Excursions in the frequency of extreme events reveal "fingerprints" of dynamical factors such as ENSO or NAO, and chemical factors, such as cold Arctic vortex ozone losses, as well as major volcanic eruptions of the 20th century (Gunung Agung, El Chichón, Mt. Pinatubo). Furthermore, atmospheric loading of ozone depleting substances leads to a continuous modification of column ozone in the Northern Hemisphere also with respect to extreme values (partly again in connection with polar vortex contributions). Application of extreme value theory allows the identification of many more such "fingerprints" than conventional time series analysis of annual and seasonal mean values. The analysis shows in particular the strong influence of dynamics, revealing that even moderate ENSO and NAO events have a discernible effect on total ozone. Overall the approach to extremal modelling provides new information on time series properties, variability, trends and the influence of dynamics and chemistry, complementing earlier analyses focusing only on monthly (or annual) mean values.

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